Quantitative assessment of agricultural sustainability reveals divergent priorities among nations

•We offer a Sustainable Agriculture Matrix to track performance of countries worldwide•Priority areas for improving agricultural sustainability depend on development stage•Analysis trade-offs and synergies among indicators can inform national policies The 2015 Development Goals present pathways toward sustainable future. agriculture sector is fundamental three pillars sustainability: the environment, economy, society. However, definition feasibility measuring it remain elusive. Independent transparent measurements countries' efforts promote are essential ensure accountability commitments study their effectiveness. Here we (SAM) based historical data environmental, social, economic agriculture. Analyses these demonstrate where progress being made, identify priorities needed improvements, reveal each country. As further become available, SAM will be improved, but this version offers unique start quantifying trends informing advance sustainability. all sustainability, society, economy. capacities measure gauge progress, encourage accountability, policy. Here, developed quantify in investigate most world. results priority improvement by country show that often differ. Exceptions common economic-versus-environmental trade-offs, example, opportunities learn from with synergistic multiple indicators. These improve as more useful starting point evaluating identifying improvement, actions society reliable source nourishment human existence. also provides income employment rural communities people along food supply chain. pursuit higher productivity nourish growing increasingly affluent world population has been accompanied mounting environmental social trade-offs. For major driver deforestation biodiversity loss;1Campbell B.M. Beare D.J. Bennett E.M. Hall-Spencer J.M. Ingram J.S. Jaramillo F. 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In Land: An IPCC Special Change, Desertification, Land Degradation, Management, Security, Greenhouse Gas Fluxes Terrestrial Ecosystems.Google responsible freshwater consumption globally.7OECDManaging water sustainably key future agriculture.Water Agric. 2019; https://www.oecd.org/agriculture/topics/water-and-agriculture/Google Besides acute problems, many agriculture-dominated suffering problems such poverty, malnutrition, declining opportunities, even though whole productive hunger significantly decreased worldwide.8Townsend Ending Poverty Hunger 2030: Agenda Global System. World Bank, 2015Google Moving forward, still facing challenge increasing meet societal demands food, fiber, energy.9Beltran-Peña Rosa D’Odorico self-sufficiency 21st century under intensification agriculture.Environ. Res. Lett. 15: 095004Crossref (21) This complicated its impacts diets nutrition, climate change, degradation.4Zhang Scholar,10Springmann Clark Mason-D’Croz Wiebe Bodirsky de Vries Vermeulen S.J. 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Consultative International Research, 1990Google Nevertheless, there consensus framing namely economic, pillars.12Hayati, Several frameworks have quantitatively assess systems global scales (Note S2; Table S2)10Springmann Scholar,15Béné Prager S.D. Achicanoy H.A. Toro P.A. Lamotte Bonilla Mapes B.R. map sustainability.Scientific data. 6: 1-15Google Scholar,16Chaudhary Gustafson Mathys Multi-indicator assessment systems.Nat. 9: 848Crossref (173) farm scale.17Smith Snapp Chikowo Thorne Bekunda Glover smallholder agroecosystems: review.Glob. 12: 127-138Crossref (87) Few, however, focused assessing diverse range dimensions scale, establishing thresholds targets, analyzing impacts. Resources Institute (WRI)18Reytar Hanson Henninger Indicators Agriculture: Scoping Analysis. Institute, (Figures S2 S5); Integrated Systems Healthy Diets19EAT Initiative (2015). Diets Post-2015 Agenda_17 Sept Final Statement. https://cgspace.cgiar.org/handle/10947/4011#:∼:text=https%3A//hdl.handle.net/10947/4011.Google Sustainability Index20The EconomistEIUFixing towards More Barilla Center Nutrition, 2016Google evaluate instead focusing Many agriculture-related low availability S2–S5). part framework Inter-Agency Expert at UN. indicator emerged final list was: “SDG2.4.1: Proportion area practices.” custodian agency indicator, (FAO) UN led methodological now recognized international community. methodologies, building upon surveys, require time resources implement, especially detecting comparing trends. Despite several organizations, call monitoring worldwide21Sachs Remans Smukler Winowiecki Andelman Cassman K.G. Castle DeFries Denning G. Fanzo world’s agriculture.Nature. 2010; 466: 558-560Google yet resulted actual datasets enable trend assessments. lack quantification across hinders identification undesirable interventions win-win solutions targets. address urgent need developing (SAM), 218 regions (see detailed methodology section “experimental procedures”). First introduced Swaminathan14Swaminathan conceptual framework, highlights multi-dimensional nature moving one-dimensional policy-making yields, coordinated thinking transform Swaminathan's illustrative concept measurable indicators, identified aspects dimension (environmental, social) broad survey existing synthesizing sources disciplines process experimental procedures), established rationales socioeconomic biophysical discussion Notes S3–S5). resulting matrix around scale. Because expect improvements country, our purpose universal rather provide own appropriate needs. end, analyze over discuss examples lessons learned country-level histories. Our first result itself, describe scope here since they literature iterative procedures). focuses direct environment broader (Figure 1), recognizing deeply interconnected other sectors (e.g., industry). Specifically, perspective, avoids inefficient resources, loss converting natural habitat land, injudicious chemical compounds negatively affects local regional air quality, emissions gases disrupt climate, losses soil fertility. From improves viability enhancing profitability, advancing innovation, providing farmers access markets credit, farmers' ability manage risk, reducing wellbeing, respects rights, promotes equitable communities, enhanced resilience improved nutrition health. assessed SAM. state captured above, and, ideally, should (1) closely relate monotonic relationship sustainability; (2) years; (3) than drivers practices; (4) simple transparent. practice, rare; therefore, criteria accordingly principles select procedures details methods selection). After screening 200 initially proposed 18 selected 1; described Overall, scale shares similarities FAO,13FAOTransforming linked targets S1). Admittedly, current limitations did permit inclusion covering some important topics may expanded future, but, judgment, collectively represent best comprehensive currently available.Table 1A summary SAMMajor aspectIndicatorsData sourcesGreen thresholdRed thresholdUnitsEnvironmental dimensionWater availabilitysustainability irrigation (water consumption)Rosa 22Rosa Rulli M.C. Davis K.F. Chiarelli D.D. Passera Closing yield gap ensuring sustainability.Environ. 13: 104002Crossref (67) Scholar,23Rosa Tu unsustainable virtual flows trade.Environ. 14: 114001Google Scholar12km3 total annual water/km3 consumptionPollutionN surplusZhang al.24Zhang E.A. Mauzerall D.L. Searchinger T.D. Dumas Shen Managing development.Nature. 2015; 528: 51Crossref (847) Scholar5269kg N/ha/yearP surplusZou 25Zou Improving efficiency cropland challenges 2050. Space Science Open Archive, 2020Google Scholar3.56.9kg P/ha/yearLand biodiversitythe lost forested due (land-use change)Global Forest Watch, Curtis al.26Curtis P.G. Slay C.M. Harris N.L. Tyukavina Hansen Classifying forest loss.. 1111: 1108-1111Google Scholar00.0053ha deforested/ha area/yearClimate changetotal emission per harvested (greenhouse gas)FAO27FAO (2018). FAOSTAT Statistics Database.Google Scholar0.861.08ton CO2eq/haSoil healthsoil erosionBorrellie al.28Borrelli Robinson D.A. Fleischer L.R. Lugato Ballabio Alewell Meusburger Modugno Schütt B. Ferro V. al.An impact land change erosion.Nat. 8https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-02142-7Crossref (616) Scholar15ton/haEconomic dimensionAgricultural labor productivityagricultural GDP worker (labor productivity)derived Bank (WDI)29World Indicators.Google Scholar7,9464602011 US$ PPPCredit availabilityaccess finance (finance access)EIU30EIUGlobal Index. Economist Intelligence Unit, 2018https://foodsecurityindex.eiu.com/Google Scholar10025scoreFarmer's riskscrop price volatility (price volatility)Derived FAO27FAO Scholar0.100.23–Agricultural supportgovernment expenditure (government support)agricultural data, IFPRI31IFPRIStatistics Public Expenditures Economic Development. SPEED, Scholar; worker, derived WDI 9Beltran-Peña Scholar2,405252011 PPPMarket accesstotal export values percentage (trade openness)trade Comtrade;32U.N. Comtrade GDP, WDI29World Scholar7117%Food lossfood (food loss)EIU30EIUGlobal Scholar2.26.6%Social dimensionResiliencecrop diversity H index (crop diversity)calculated following Seekell al.33Seekell Carr Dell’Angelo Fader Gephart Kummu Magliocca Porkka Puma Resilience system.Environ. 025010Crossref (52) Scholar4822countsfood affordability low-income affordability)Seekell Scholar10030%Health nutritionprevalence under-nourishment (under-nourishment)FAO27FAO Scholar07.5%Farmers' wellbeingrural poverty ratio (rural poverty)World Bank34World ForumThe Gender Gap 2018. Forum, Scholar213%Equalityglobal gender report score (gender gap)World Forum34World Scholar0.80.7scoreFarmers' rightsLand rightsLandMark35Wily L.A. Tagliarino Harvard Law Society (LIDS) Vidal Salcedo-La Vina http://www.landmarkmap.org/Date: Scholar32scoreThe words parenthesis column abbreviated names determining S3–S5. IFPRI, Policy Institute; WDI, Indicators; PPP, purchasing power parity. table new tab cross-comparison country's performance, defined red green aligning boundaries activities.36Rockström Steffen Noone Persson Å. Chapin F.S. Lambin E.F. Lenton T.M. Scheffer Folke Schellnhuber H.J. safe operating space humanity.nature. 461: 472-475Crossref (5828) 37Steffen Richardson Rockström Cornell S.E. Fetzer Biggs Carpenter S.R. De Wit C.A. Planetary boundaries: guiding changing planet.Science. 347: 1259855Crossref (3993) 38Raworth Safe Just Humanity: Can We Live Doughnut?. Oxfam, 2012Google 39Raworth doughnut Anthropocene: humanity’s compass century.Lancet Planet. Health. 1: e48-e49Abstract Full Text PDF (113) Red indicate high risks impacts, suggest acceptable target S3–S5 threshold setting indicator). help initial outline “safe just space”38Raworth production. specifically, includes six concerns. Those concerns, exception erosion, correspond heavily influenced activities, including consumption: consumption),22Rosa disturbance N P cycles (N surplus surplus), change: activities), gas: activities).10Springmann Scholar,36Rockström Scholar,37Steffen align boundary modifications cross-country comparisons (Notes Although erosion country-scale aspect health, interest limited scales. While does reflect concerns least basic estimates coverage, years. directly measured those damages caused changes crop mixes land-use deforestation), requires concept, agribusinesses considering both costs benefits. cost measures financing options access: index), support government support: expenditures gross domestic product [GDP]), potentially helps lower increase innovative chain loss: post-harvest pre-consumer supply). benefit evaluates productivity: worker), openness trade openness: revenues out